The
Office for National Statistics published the monthly Labour Market Statistics
First Release this morning, which includes Labour Force Survey data for the
period May to July 2012 and Jobseekers’ Allowance (JSA) data for August. According to LFS estimates, employment has
increased on the previous quarter and unemployment has fallen slightly, whilst
the more timely measure of claimant count unemployment also shows a
decrease. However, a regional break-down
of this data strongly suggests that this relates to the effects of the London
Olympics. London accounted for the majority
of the increase in employment. The
number of employed residents has fallen in other regions – including the East
Midlands.
In
London, the number of resident adults in employment increased by 91,000 on the
previous quarter (February to April 2012), 44% of the total increase estimated
for England as a whole. Similarly,
22,000 fewer residents in London were estimated to be unemployed compared to
the previous quarter. The total fall in
unemployment in England was also 22,000, which indicates that London balanced
out increases in unemployment in a number of other regions. Unemployment in Yorkshire and the Humber and the
East and West Midlands increased by 23,000, 5,000 and 16,000 respectively over
the same period.
The
latest estimates also indicate that part-time employment is now at the highest
level since records began (in 1992), and the proportion of adults working
part-time because they cannot find a full-time job remains at the highest level
since comparable records began (also 1992).
As a further indicator of the continuing weakness of the labour market,
the number of people who have been unemployed for more than one year has now
reached its highest level since the three months to May 1996.
Unemployment
and Employment Rates
LFS
data for the three months to July 2012 indicate that the unemployment rate[1]
has fallen slightly by 0.1 percentage
points on the previous quarter, to 8.1% of the economically active population,
which is equivalent to 2.59 million individuals. This is 7,000 lower than the previous
quarter, but up 61,000 on the same period a year earlier. Long-term unemployment continues to increase,
with the number of people out of work for more than a year up to 904,000 (up
22,000 from the previous quarter), which is the highest level since the three
months to May 1996.
The
employment rate (for adults aged 16-64) increased by 0.5 percentage points on
the previous quarter, to 71.2%, the highest figure since the three months to
April 2009. The total number of people
estimated to be in employment is now 29.6 million, up 236,000 on the previous
quarter. Both full-time and part-time
employment increased, by 102,000 and 134,000 respectively, with the number of
part-time workers reaching its highest level since comparable records began in
1992. Furthermore, the number of
employees and self-employees working part-time because they have been unable to
find a full-time job remains at the highest level since comparable records
began (also in 1992).
Earnings
Estimates
Earnings
estimates continue to point to very weak growth in average pay levels, with
regular pay (excluding bonuses), rising by only 1.9% between the three months
to July 2012 and the same period a year earlier. Total pay (including bonuses) increased by
1.5% - down 0.3 percentage points from the earnings growth estimates for the
three months to June.
Job Seekers’
Allowance Claimants
Jobseekers’
Allowance (JSA) claimants in August 2012 fell by 15,000 on the previous month,
to reach 1.57 million. The claimant
count rate was 4.8%, unchanged from the previous month. However, data from regional Jobcentre Plus
offices demonstrates that much of this decrease can be attributed to London,
which is likely to be associated with the Olympics. Claimant count unemployment in London was down
by 5,500, 37% of the total decrease in Jobseekers’ Allowance claimants across
the UK. The next largest decrease was
2,200 in the North West.
Redundancies
and Vacancies
In the three months to July 2012, 142,000 people had
become redundant, down 13,000 from
the previous quarter and down 2,000 from the same period a year earlier.
The number of vacancies
(advertised through Jobcentre Plus) in the three months to August 2012 was 473,000
up 5,000 compared to the previous quarter and up 14,000 on the same period a
year earlier. The number of ILO unemployed
adults to every one vacancy has fallen to 5.5, compared to 5.6 in the previous
quarter.
Key Regional
Developments
- As mentioned above, London is an outlier in the current data release, which is very likely to be associated with additional jobs created through the Olympics, many of which may be part-time or temporary. According to the latest LFS estimates, the number employed in London increased by 91,000 between the periods February to April 2012 and May to July 2012, whilst the number unemployed fell by 22,000 (equal to the fall in England overall).
- The North East, North West, East of England, South East and South West experienced much smaller decreases in unemployment levels. However, unemployment increased in Yorkshire and the Humber (by 23,000), the East Midlands (by 5,000) and the West Midlands (by 16,000).
- In the East Midlands, employment fell slightly on the quarter, by 10,000 (or 0.3 percentage points). Compared to the same period a year earlier, however, the decrease in employment is more significant – at 26,000. The East Midlands is the only English region to have experienced a fall in employment in May to July 2012 when compared to May to July 2011. The regional employment rate is currently estimated to be 71.7%, which exceeds the UK average (71.2%), but the unemployment rate, at 8.3%, also exceeds the UK average (8.1%), as it did in last month’s First Release. Historically, the East Midlands has maintained lower than average unemployment rates.
[1]
According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), this is defined as
those who are out of work but available for, and actively looking for,
employment within a set period. This is
expressed as the proportion of ‘economically active’ (employed plus unemployed)
adults.
No comments:
Post a Comment