March 2012 Labour Market Statistics Briefing

On the 14th of March, the Office for National Statistics published both the latest monthly Labour Market Statistics and the estimates of Public Sector Employment for the final quarter of 2011.  The Labour Market Statistics includes Labour Force Survey data for the period November 2011 to January 2012 and Jobseekers’ Allowance data for February 2012.  The data indicates an increase in the International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure of unemployment to the highest level since November 1995.  However, for the third consecutive release, there has been a slight increase in the numbers in employment - which was principally driven by an increase in part-time employment (with the number of self-employees falling).[1] 

Public sector employment in the final quarter of 2011 is estimated to be 270,000 lower than the same period a year earlier. The largest share of job losses was estimated to be from local government (down by 204,000 on the same period a year earlier).[2]

Compared to the broadly optimistic reaction from city analysts and political commentators to last month’s release, reactions this month appear to be more muted, with many analysts accepting that a significant improvement in labour market conditions appears unlikely in the short-term.    The Guardian ran a feature contrasting the views of various analysts, in which most emphasised the current high level of unemployment in the UK and the consistently poor figures over previous months – characterised by significant falls in public sector employment and only weak increases in private sector jobs (Blerina Uruci, Barclays Capital).  Furthermore, a  number of these analysts appeared to agree that a fall in unemployment was unlikely until early 2013 (e.g. Nida Ali, Ernst & Young Item Club). 

The Government has continued to argue that the data is “encouraging”  - with Employment Minister Chris Grayling MP identifying “signs that the labour market is stabilising” in an interview with the BBC.  In criticising the Government’s presentation of the latest data, organisations such as the TUC have drawn attention to the recent increases in individuals working part-time because they have been unable to find full-time employment, suggesting that this provides evidence of persistent underlying weaknesses in the UK labour market.  These developments are explored in more detail below.

Unemployment and Employment Rates

LFS data for the three months to January 2012 suggests that the unemployment rate has increased by 0.1 percentage point on the previous quarter to reach 8.4% of economically active adults in the UK overall.[3]   The ONS note that this rate is the highest since the three months to November 1995.  However, the increase in the number of unemployed on the previous quarter, at 28,000, has been lower than increases reported in previous Labour Market Statistics (and is the lowest quarterly increase since the three months to May 2011).  This is the development that has led Government spokespeople to argue that the trend in unemployment could be stabilising.  However, it is important to note that the level of unemployment  -  at 2.67 million individuals - is higher than at any point in 2011.

A strong message in the latest data, as reported by the BBC, has been the increase in unemployment amongst women.  The number of unemployed women in the three months to January 2012 increased by 22,000 on the previous quarter, compared to an increase of 5,000 for unemployed men.  Although men still make up the majority of ILO unemployment (1.54 million), women have accounted for the largest share of recent increases in unemployment.  This could well be associated with the significant falls in public sector employment, described below, which accounts for activities where women are known to be overrepresented (e.g. local government, health and education).

The employment rate remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter, at 70.3%.  The number of people employed increased by 9,000 on the quarter to reach 29.12 million (although this is still 44,000 lower than the same period a year earlier).   This slight increase on the quarter was mainly due to 60,000 more employees working part-time.  Alongside a small increase in full-time employees of 3,000, this increase in part-time working compensated for a significant fall in self-employment of 52,000 and a small fall in unpaid family workers.   As reported in last month’s briefing, a high and growing number of individuals (1.38 million) state that they are working part-time because they have been unable to find full-time work.

Public Sector Employment

The separate release of Public Sector Employment estimates for the final quarter of 2011 strongly suggests that local government employees have borne the brunt of public sector job cuts.  In the fourth quarter of 2011, total public sector employment was 270,000 lower than the same period a year earlier – at 5.94 million.  Local government employment was 204,000 lower than in the final quarter of 2010 (a decrease of 7.1%), compared to a fall of 34,000 in central government, including the NHS (1.2%), and a fall of 32,000 in public corporations (6.1%).

Job Seekers’ Allowance Claimants

The proportion of Job Seekers’ Allowance (JSA) claimants in the UK in February 2012 was 5.0% of adults aged 16 and over, which is unchanged from the previous month but is 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier.  This is equivalent to 1.6 million adults claiming JSA across the UK, up 7,200 from January 2012 and up  162,100 on the same period a year earlier. 

Redundancies and Vacancies

In the three months to January, 173,000 people had become redundant, up 11,000 from the previous quarter and up 30,000 from the same period a year earlier.

The number of vacancies (advertised through Jobcentre Plus) has increased slightly in the three months to February 2012 by 15,000 to reach 473,000.  However, this is still 20,000 lower than the same period a year earlier.  

Key Regional Developments

·         Although the number in employment increased in the UK overall, numbers fell significantly in the North West, the East Midlands and London, by 51,000, 25,000 and 27,000 respectively.  The South West was also estimated to have experienced a slight fall in total employment, by 6,000.  The employment rate was highest in the East of England (74.7%) and lowest in the North East (66.5%).

·         The North East continues to have the highest unemployment rate of the nine English regions, at 10.8%.  However, compared to the previous quarter, unemployment increased by most in the North West, by 16,000 individuals and 0.6 percentage points, to a rate of 9.3%.

·         In the East Midlands, unemployment increased by 5,000 (or 0.3 percentage points) to a rate of 8.2%, which remains below the UK average of 8.4%, whilst the employment rate remains above the national average (at 71% compared to 70.3%).

[1] ONS Crown Copyright. 14 March 2012. ‘Labour Market Statistics: March 2012’.  TSO: London.

[2] ONS Crown Copyright. 14 March 2012. ‘Public Sector Employment – Q4 2011’.  TSO: London.

[3] According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), this is defined as those who are out of work but available for, and actively looking for, employment within a set period.  This is expressed as the proportion of ‘economically active’ (employed plus unemployed) adults.

---

February 2012 Labour Market Statistics Briefing

On the 15th of February, the Office for National Statistics published the Labour Market Statistics for February 2012, which covers Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for the final three months of 2011 and Jobseekers’ Allowance claimant data for January 2012.  This data indicates a further increase in unemployment, both on the quarterly LFS measure and the more timely monthly claimant count measure.  However, for the second consecutive monthly data release, there has been a slight increase in the numbers employed. 

The broadsheets and the BBC have largely reported reactions from City analysts and Government representatives who have presented the slight increase in employment and the slower increase in unemployment in very positive terms.  Today’s Guardian quoted Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, who said: "If there was any doubt that the UK economy had turned the corner and that the worst news was in the past, then today's labour report should lay those concerns to rest." The Independent and the BBC both interviewed the Government’s Minister for Welfare Reform, Lord Freud, who described the latest data as “encouraging”, telling the Independent that: “With more people in employment and a rise in vacancies, it is clear the private sector is still creating jobs.” 

However, in our view it is too early to support such optimistic interpretations, especially on the basis of monthly estimates – which are far less robust than LFS data published quarterly by the ONS.  We also fear that this optimism fundamentally underplays the fact that the labour market remains in a very fragile state.  It is important to remember that employment and unemployment rates are ‘lagging’ indicators, meaning that they tend to follow changes in other indicators (such as GDP growth rates or leading indicators like business confidence or manufacturing orders).  Therefore it is likely that future LMS releases, at least for the next few months, will continue to suggest weak labour market conditions until there are stronger signs of recovery.

We also believe that some of the details within the data remain quite concerning. These include the fact that the recent increase in employment was driven by more people working part-time (masking a fall in both full-time employment and self-employment) and that disparities between English regions could be widening (with the number of unemployed increasing by 26,000 in the North West, over half of the total increase in unemployed people across the UK).  This is described in more detail below.

Unemployment and Employment Rates

LFS data for the three months to December 2011 suggest that unemployment has again increased, by 0.1 percentage points on the previous quarter to a rate of 8.4% in the UK.[1]  This represents an increase of 48,000 in the number of unemployed people compared to the previous quarter (with a total of 2.7 million estimated to be unemployed between October and December 2011).  The ONS emphasise that, in the context of the rapid increases in unemployment reported in recent months, this is a relatively modest rise – and is the lowest increase since April-June 2011.  However, compared with the same period a year earlier (October-December 2010), the latest rate is clearly a very significant increase – with 179,000 more individuals unemployed.  We believe it is important to bear in mind this longer term trend in unemployment when considering some of the reactions in the media summarised above.

Although unemployment has continued to increase, the latest LFS estimate suggests that employment has increased slightly (which was also the case in the three months to November 2011 reported in last month’s LMS).  The employment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 70.3%, an increase of 60,000 on the quarter to reach 29.1million employed.  It is possible for employment and unemployment rates to increase at the same time if economic inactivity (the proportion of adults who are neither employed nor unemployed, such as full time carers, students, etc.) decreases. 

Last month we reported that employment rose because an increase in the number of self-employees outweighed a decrease in the number of full-time employees.  This month’s data is rather different, with the number of full-time employees and self-employees both decreasing – by 26,000 and 10,000 respectively on the previous quarter.  The net increase in total employment has been driven by an increase in the number of part-time employees (by 90,000 on the previous quarter).  Unfortunately that further builds on a picture of labour market weakness, fuelled by a low demand from employers, as the number of people who said they only worked part time because they couldn’t find a full-time job (i.e. working part-time but wanting to work full-time) increased by 83,000,to reach 1.35 million – which is the highest number since records began in 1992. 

If last month’s story was an increase in ‘necessity’ self-employment, this month’s story is surely an increase in ‘necessity’ part-time working. 

Job Seekers’ Allowance Claimants

The proportion of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants in the UK in January 2012 was 5.0% of adults aged 16 and over, which is unchanged from the previous month but 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier.  This is equivalent to 1.6 million adults claiming JSA across the UK, up 6,900 from the previous month (December 2011) and up 146,300 on the same period a year earlier.  These increases are slightly higher than the increases reported last month (for December 2011 JSA claimants compared to November 2011).

Redundancies and Vacancies

In the three months to December 2011, 164,000 people had become redundant, up 17,000 from the previous quarter and up 17,000 from the same period a year earlier.

The number of vacancies (advertised through Jobcentre Plus) has increased slightly in the three months to January 2012 (after falling for two consecutive quarters) by 11,000 to reach 476,000.  However, this is still 21,000 lower than the same period a year earlier.   Given the relatively high level of unemployment, this now means that there are 5.8 ILO unemployed adults to every one vacancy, up from 5.6 in the previous quarter.

Key Regional Developments

·         Although the number in employment increased in the UK overall, numbers fell significantly in the North West and the East Midlands, by 15,000 and 32,000 respectively on the previous quarter. The East of England, South East and South West all experienced significant increases, by 25,000, 20,000 and 26,000.  This demonstrates a continued north-south divide in labour market conditions. 

·         Although the number in employment also increased in the North East (by 20,000), this region continues to have the lowest employment rate, at 66.2% - compared to 74.6% in the East of England.

·         Unemployment has increased in all regions except for the North East, Yorkshire and the Humber and the South West.  The largest increase was in the North West, where the numbers estimated to be unemployed increased by 26,000 (over half the total increase in unemployment across the UK).

·         In the East Midlands, unemployment increased by 1,000 (or 0.2 percentage points) to reach 8.2%, which remains below the UK average of 8.4%, whilst the employment rate remains above the national average (at 71.1% compared to 70.3%).

Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 'Labour Market Statistics: February 2012', 15th February 2012.

[1] According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), this is defined as those who are out of work but available for, and actively looking for, employment within a set period.  This is expressed as the proportion of ‘economically active’ (employed plus unemployed) adults.

---

Posen addresses the ‘productivity gap’ at Nottingham Business School

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen spoke at Nottingham Business School last night. The main focus of his presentation was to consider whether the recent recession and, as yet, painfully slow recovery provides evidence of a fundamental adjustment (down) to the trajectory of UK productivity growth. The good news was that he concluded ‘no’. The bad news was that we can expect to see unemployment continuing to rise for some time to come.

Underpinning this conclusion was an incisive analysis of sectoral performance based on, as yet unpublished, analysis by Bank of England economists. The main thrust of this analysis was to suggest that, in the wake of recession, a number of sectors are performing significantly worse (in terms of productivity) than the economy in general – the ‘dawdlers’. These dawdling sectors include financial services, professional and scientific services and, in his view, the highly unionised transport and logistics sector. In these 3 cases Posen suggested that employment had yet to fall to a level commensurate with reduced output – hence his prognosis on unemployment.  He would not be drawn on which sectors were out-performing the norm – although there were hints elsewhere in his speech that export orientated manufacturers are worth watching.

He did not address regional differentials in economic performance, but given what we know about the uneven distribution of sectors across the UK regions, this analysis could have significant regional implications. We will post a link to Posen’s presentation as soon as it is published by the Bank of England.

Does increased self-employment signify ‘Start-Up’ Britain or is it a cause for concern?

In our analysis of the monthly Labour Market Statistics (see 20^th December’s blog), we have questioned whether the Government is right to celebrate the recent rapid growth in self-employment, arguing that this may indicate “necessity entrepreneurship”.  This is where individuals become self-employed as a consequence of not being able to find employment – often in lower skilled activities, with relatively low and variable earnings, lacking many of the legal benefits enjoyed by employees (the minimum wage, holiday and sickness pay etc.).

A comment piece by John Harris in today’s Guardian drew useful attention to recent analysis by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) on reasons to be concerned over the true nature of the rise in self-employment.  By comparing the profile of the self-employed in a recent quarter of the Labour Force Survey (August-October 2011) to previous time periods, the authors found that the ‘newly self-employed’ were more likely to be working less than 30 hours a week and increasingly more likely to be working in unskilled, elementary activities (increasing by 29% since 2008) or personal service occupations (increasing by 19%).  Conversely, self-employed skilled tradesman have made up a much smaller proportion of the net increase (increasing by only 2% since 2008) and sectors historically associated with large proportions of self-employment have experienced a decrease in their self-employed workforce (with self-employees in construction shrinking by 3% since 2008).

Past analysis of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) has identified certain characteristics associated with entrepreneurs, including a higher level of skill or education, access to capital and previous experience of employment – with a high proportion of entrepreneurs being older (35-44 years old).  This suggests that self-employment is not an ideal choice for everyone.

This casts doubt on whether policy makers are wise to view self-employment as an objective in its own right, and as a status that is always somehow more desirable than employment.  This is particularly concerning when some commentators are suggesting that Government should provide start-up loans for young people (similar to loans for tuition feeds) to go into self-employment, in order to reduce youth unemployment.  Self-employment should clearly be supported when it is undertaken to pursue an idea or an opportunity, but it may result in individuals finding themselves in more vulnerable circumstances if it becomes a necessity or the only alternative to unemployment.

January 2012 Labour Market Statistics Briefing

On the 18^th of January, the Office for National Statistics published the Labour Market Statistics for January 2012, which covers Labour Force Survey data for the period September-November 2011 and data on Jobseekers’ Allowance claimants for December 2011.  This data indicated a further fall in the employment rate and a higher than expected increase in unemployment, with the number of people estimated to be unemployed reaching 2.7 million adults – up 118,000 on the previous quarter - the highest number since 1994. 

In the national news there was considerable emphasis on the continued increase in the unemployment of young people, aged 16-24, which has increased by 52,000 on the previous quarter to 1.04 million, with sources such as the BBC, Guardian and Channel 4 News speculating about a ‘lost generation’ – unemployed young people who have never had experience of paid work, and will therefore face increasing barriers accessing work in the future.   In responses from the Government (e.g. employment minister Chris Grayling MP) and from some media commentators (e.g. Channel 4 News’ economics editor, Faisal Islam) there was also optimistic speculation that, because month-on-month increases in the claimant count appears to be slowing, this may point to future improvement in the wider quarterly labour market statistics – and that the ‘end may be in sight’ for the current trend of worsening employment conditions.  Unfortunately, it is our view that such optimism may be premature – given corresponding monthly indicators of demand for labour, such as vacancies, continue to worsen.  Vacancies advertised in Jobcentres in the three months to December 2011 down 2,000 on the previous quarter and 18,000 on the year.  This is also in-line with a range of concerning business survey reports, showing subdued business activity, confidence and consumer spending.

More locally, BBC East Midlands today presented the fall in employment and rise in unemployment as an unexpected end to the region ’bucking the trend’ – citing previous Labour Market Statistics releases that suggested that conditions in the East Midlands had been more stable than nationally, even with some indication of increases in employment in previous quarters.  Again, our view is unfortunately somewhat less positive.  The more reliable 12-month-rolling Labour Force Survey results (which are published for the East Midlands 4 times a year, each containing 12 months’ worth of data) suggest that the East Midlands did not experience a comparable level of recovery in terms of employment and unemployment through 2010 compared to the national picture -  so the region’s relative stability through 2011 (up until the latest release) has to be seen in the light of weaker performance in the previous year.

Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 'Labour Market Statistics: January 2012', Statistical Bulletin, 18th January 2012.

Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire (D2N2) Capacity Fund Research Reports Published

http://www.d2n2lep.org/document-library.aspx 

The ‘D2N2’ Local Enterprise Partnership have now published a collection of research reports produced by the Economic Strategy Research Bureau as part of the Department for Business, Innovation & Skills LEP Capacity Fund.  Work from the main research stage is complete – which is now informing a process of strategic planning and engagement between the LEP Board and businesses in key sectors.

We’ll be blogging on the policy implications of the key findings as they relate to skills, enterprise and the impacts of the recession (which have been particularly marked in terms of rising unemployment in Nottingham City) over the next couple of weeks, but in the meantime the individual reports are as follows:

Report 1: Executive Summary – which includes the rationale for the industrial sectors recommended for focus to the LEP Board:

http://www.d2n2lep.org/Userfiles/Report%201-%20D2N2%20Evidence%20Summary%20FINAL%20Dec%202011.pdf

Report 2: Policy Context and Observations from the Evidence -  which includes a detailed overview of all the main national policy developments – up to the City Deal announcements of the last few weeks – as they relate to LEPs and economic development more widely, followed by an attempt to relate the key findings from the evidence to interventions available to LEP partners:

http://www.d2n2lep.org/Userfiles/Report%202%20-%20D2N2%20Conclusions%20and%20Observations%20FINAL%20Dec%202011.pdf

Report 3: The D2N2 Economy – using official and data and other sources, including the Experian economic model held by NBS, to assess the economy of the local area, key sectors – identifying relative productivity advantages – and exploring the extent of enterprise and innovation activity.

http://www.d2n2lep.org/Userfiles/Report%203%20-%20D2N2%20Economy%20FINAL%20Dec%202011.pdf

Report 4: Employment and Skills -  again using official data and other sources, including the National Employer Skills Survey, to compare and contrast measures of skills supply and demand, and discuss the impacts of recession on the area’ labour market.

http://www.d2n2lep.org/Userfiles/Report%204%20-%20D2N2%20Employment%20&%20Skills%20FINAL%20Dec%202011.pdf 

 

Report 5: Education and Training – particularly important for LEP partners, given the significant changes in this area under the Coalition Government – moving towards a more market driven system based on ‘learner choice’ – which, it is hoped, will be more responsive to the needs of employers than the previous Government’s more interventionist approach.  This also looks at experiences of recent graduates from Derby, Nottingham and Nottingham Trent Universities, employer perceptions of education leavers, and survey evidence on the influence of advice and guidance on learner choices.

http://www.d2n2lep.org/Userfiles/Report%205%20-%20D2N2%20Education%20and%20Training%20FINAL%20Dec%202011.pdf

Report 6: Review of D2N2 Research and Strategy and Gap Analysis -  a literature review of a wide selection of strategies, action plans and research documents produced by the City and County Councils, the Chamber of Commerce and other LEP partners to inform the focus of the above reports.

http://www.d2n2lep.org/Userfiles/Report%206%20-%20D2N2_LitReview%20FINAL%20Dec%202011.pdf

Have a great Christmas and New Year,

All the best,

Chris

Labour Market Statistics December 2011

(this post is a copy of document sent to contacts within an hour of statistics' publication -a briefing of January's LMS will be available on this site by 10.30am on 18th January 2012 - the day of the January LMS publication)

On Wednesday the 14th of December, the Office for National Statistics published the Labour Market Statistics (LMS) for December, which covers Labour Force Survey data for the period August-October 2011.  This confirms the expectations of most commentators that employment rates would again fall and unemployment would increase.   Youth unemployment (16-24 year olds) has also increased, reaching 1.03 million, at the highest level since comparable records began.

Employment

In the UK as a whole during the period August-October 2011, 70.3% of adults (aged 16-64) were in employment, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous quarter (May-July 2011).  This is equivalent to 29.1 million adults in employment, 63,000 lower than the previous quarter.

The number of employees fell by 252,000 compared to the previous quarter (to reach 25 million).   The number of people who are self-employed increased by 166,000 (to reach 4 million).  This is the highest number of self-employed people since comparable records began (in 1992).

A significant proportion of the increase in self-employment is likely to be due to necessity – i.e. individuals starting their own businesses having been unable to find suitable employment.  This can be a concern for policy makers, as research has shown that people moving into self-employment in times of labour  market difficulty can often ‘trade down’ on their skills to activities that may be associated with relatively low levels of pay.

Public sector employment fell significantly, by 67,000 between June and September to reach 6 million, the lowest figure since September 2003.  Conversely, private sector employment increased by only 5,000 over the quarter, to reach 23 million.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate, based on the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition[1], for August -October was 8.3% of economically active adults, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.  This is equivalent to a total of 2.6 million adults unemployed, an increase of 128,000 on the previous quarter.  The number of unemployed adults is the highest it has been since January 1996.

Youth Unemployment

There has been particular concern about youth unemployment (16-24 year olds) over recent months, with the number exceeding a record 1 million according to last month’s LMS.   It has now reached 1.03 million, or 22% of economically active 16-24 year olds.  Compared to the previous quarter (May-July 2011) this has increased by 1.2 percentage points and 54,000 individuals.  Youth unemployment is at its highest level and rate since comparable records began in 1992.

Job Seekers’ Allowance Claimants

The proportion of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants in the UK in November 2011 was 5.0% of adults aged 16 and over, which is unchanged from the previous month but 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier.  This is equivalent to 1.6 million adults claiming JSA across the UK, up 3,000 from the previous month and 138,600 on the same period a year earlier.

The claimant count measure of unemployment is more timely than the ILO-based measure described above and is also not affected by issues related to survey sample size – as it is a count of claimants drawn from Jobcentre Plus management data.  It is generally lower than the ILO-based measure because not all unemployed people claim JSA, and not all are eligible to claim.  However, it can be affected by changes to the overall benefits system.  Recently changes to Incapacity Benefits (IB) have meant that some people declared ineligible for IB will have started to claim JSA, increasing the claimant count.  However, so far the effect of this development on the claimant count has been very small.

Redundancies and Vacancies

In the three months to October 2011, 161,000 people had become redundant, which is lower than the previous quarter (which included many public sector redundancies implemented at the start of the 2011-2012 financial year) but 2,000 higher than the same period a year earlier.

The number of vacancies (advertised through Jobcentre Plus) has fallen, to 455,000 in the period September-November 2011, which is 8,000 lower than in the previous quarter.  Given the relatively high level of unemployment, this now means that there are 5.7 ILO unemployed adults to every one vacancy, up from 5.5 in the previous quarter.

Earnings and Hours Worked

For Great Britain (which excludes Northern Ireland), the annual growth rate for total pay (including bonuses) fell by 0.3 percentage points on the previous quarter to reach 2% in August-October 2011. The whole economy earnings annual growth rate for regular pay (excluding bonuses) increased by  0.1 percentage points to reach 1.8% in the three months to October.

Estimates of total hours worked show that, whilst fewer people are in employment and earnings growth continues to remain modest, the average number of hours worked by individuals in employment has increased by 0.2 hours compared to the previous quarter, to 31.6 hours a week in the period August -October 2011.

Key Regional and Local Developments

·         Most English regions (with the exceptions of the North West, West Midlands and South West) experienced a fall in employment in August-October 2011 compared to the previous quarter.   The North East and Yorkshire & the Humber both experienced the largest falls in employment rates, by 0.8 percentage points on the previous quarter to 65.1% and 67.7% respectively.  Yorkshire & the Humber also saw the largest fall in the number of adults in employment, by 27,000, followed by the East Midlands, where the number in employment fell by 26,000 on the previous quarter.

·         In the East Midlands, the latest employment rate is 71.7% of adults aged 16-64, which is higher than the national average (70.3%).  This fell by 0.3 percentage points on the previous quarter but represents an increase of 1 percentage point on the same period a year earlier.

·         Unemployment has increased in all regions except for the East Midlands and the South West.  The ILO rate increased most in the East of England compared to the previous quarter, by 0.8 percentage points to 7.2% - although this remains low compared to the regions in the north and midlands.  The highest unemployment rate is in the North East, at 11.7% of economically active adults.

·         In the East Midlands, unemployment fell slightly compared to the previous quarter, by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average for the UK.

·        Claimant count rates have remained stable in many East Midlands local areas over the last two months, having increased for much of 2011.  However, it also shows that disparities between the areas with the highest unemployment, notably Nottingham and Leicester, and the areas with low unemployment  (such as Rutland and Leicestershire) have widened. 

·         In November 2011, Nottingham had the highest claimant count rate in the East Midlands, at 6.1% of residents, followed by Leicester at 5.8%.  This has changed little in both cases over the last two months, but is up significantly on the same period a year earlier.  In Nottingham, 13,606 individuals were claiming JSA in November 2011.  

[1] Defined as those who are out of work but available for, and actively looking for, employment within a set period.  This is expressed as the proportion of ‘economically active’ (employed plus unemployed) adults.

---